300-Plus Local Data Center Moratoriums Hold Up Just 2.3 GW as 38 GW Builds Toward 2027

Moratoriums Fall Short of Slowing the US Buildout

More than 300 local data center construction moratoriums across the United States have delayed only three projects, totaling about 2.3 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, according to SemiAnalysis. Of roughly 21 GW of data centers located in moratorium areas, just a fraction is likely to be held up, even as a total of 38 GW is projected to come online next year.

The firm's 2027 forecast of 38 GW of US data center IT capacity is more than double that of 2026. Of that total, 22 GW is already under vertical construction and the remaining 16 GW is mostly financed, with site work underway.

Why Most Bans Miss Their Target

Per-project audits show that moratoriums tend to miss the site, the permit, or the timeline. SemiAnalysis tracks more than 400 local instruments across 17 states as of September and defines a moratorium as a temporary legal pause, almost always a freeze on accepting new applications. Its analysts worked alongside "an army of state-of-the-art research agents" to test each active restriction against the records of thousands of projects.

Moratoriums do not revoke existing approvals, and short ones may expire before later projects need approval. Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums but effectively zero pipeline exposure, with a Google campus sitting on industrial land already zoned for data processing. SpaceX's planned data center in Brownsville, Texas, sits on land the city removed from its limits, placing it out of reach of the city's moratorium. In Pennsylvania, a township adopted a pause before NorthPoint filed for its special exception, pushing local approval to next year, though the company is still pursuing the project.

Texas Permit Pause Could Shift the Forecast

The 2.3 GW figure excludes the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) pause. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the TCEQ to issue no permits for data center projects, and law firm Bracewell says the order applies whether a project is in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas' (ERCOT) queue or not. The pause is expected to last until ERCOT finishes its review in mid-December, and the TCEQ's compliance report to Abbott's office is due Monday.

Politics and Public Sentiment Shape the Debate

The Economist reporter Archie Hall, writing from a trip covering Michigan and Ohio, described data center moratoriums as "much more bark than bite," arguing the bigger risk is deterring newer projects and shifting where data centers end up rather than whether they get built. SemiAnalysis notes its August poll found more Americans hold a negative rather than positive impression of data centers.

The firm concludes that moratoriums would need to be materially more widespread and restrictive to delay the buildout. Report author Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros said the firm would be worried by a strict, state-level moratorium that blocked even off-grid projects, citing Texas as an example. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, like Abbott, found ways to bypass her legislature for pauses she controls and can revoke.

Sources: Tom's Hardware