Report: Chinese fabs amassed ~343 immersion DUV systems, spurring calls for a full export ban

The estimate

A report published in late September 2026 by the Center for Technology & Statecraft (CTS), a Washington research group, estimates that Chinese-owned chip fabs had accumulated about 343 immersion deep-ultraviolet (DUVi) lithography systems by the first quarter of 2026. The study was co-authored by Nicholas Brown, a former US export control official, and Saif Khan, a former technology policy adviser at the White House and the Commerce Department, according to the South China Morning Post.

The broader estimate for all fabs in China, including multinational fabs, is about 396 systems, with a modeled range of 361-444. For Chinese-owned fabs, CTS counts roughly 270 ASML NXT:1980i systems, 22 NXT:2050i systems, six NXT:2100i systems and about 45 less advanced DUVi tools. The figures represent cumulative imports since 2012, not operational scanners, and do not model retirements or re-exports.

Why it matters

ASML holds about 99% of the DUVi market, and the NXT:1980i is the most advanced immersion system still permitted into China. CTS says it can print 7nm logic dies and HBM2e memory used in Huawei's AI chips at high throughput. China's share of ASML's DUVi shipments rose from 26% in 2022 to 60-70% between the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2026, and China spent more than $13 billion on NXT:1980i systems in 2024-2025 alone.

The recommendation

CTS recommends replacing the current partial controls with a China-wide ban on all DUVi exports, along with complementary restrictions on servicing and spare parts. Dutch servicing rules let ASML maintain China's installed base of DUVi tools, keeping them online in the long term, while NXT:1965i and older systems can be exported anywhere in China without a license despite supporting 16/14nm logic and HBM2.

The South China Morning Post reports that the study adds fresh data to the debate in Washington over whether US allies should impose a total blockade on immersion DUV tools bound for China, and notes that DUV tools can be adapted to make 7nm logic chips and advanced memory for AI processors.

Sources: Center for Technology & Statecraft · South China Morning Post · NeoTeo