NASA chief warns China could deny access to parts of the Moon's South Pole

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said Wednesday evening that China's Chang'e 7 robotic mission was targeting the same spot on the lunar South Pole that the United States wants to reach, and warned Beijing could deny others access to the Moon's most valuable parts.

Speaking at the Off World conference in Houston, Isaacman said the delay, announced last month and pushing the launch to early 2027, may have spared NASA a clash over the Solar System's most contested terrain. "They are targeting the exact same location on lunar South Pole," he said. "We may have dodged a bullet with the Chang'e 7 mission a couple of weeks ago because that would have gone to the Shackleton crater."

Why the South Pole matters

Most of the lunar surface is barren, but the South Pole, especially Shackleton Crater, is the Moon's most coveted real estate. Its high rims create permanently shadowed cold traps, where water ice and other useful materials are thought to have accumulated over billions of years.

In both NASA's and China's long-term settlement plans, only a few square miles at the South Pole matter most: both countries believe that is where they can build an enduring presence and learn the skills to expand deeper into the Solar System. Isaacman and other US officials have begun to voice concern China could establish exclusion zones around its landing sites.

Rovers, hoppers and a possible first

"It has rovers, it has hopper drones like we now have in development, and could have potentially denied access to some of the most interesting spots," Isaacman said of Chang'e 7. "They want to interact with the water ice, and they want to get really good at the skills for where they'll want to go next for their Neil Armstrong-like moment. Except it won't be on the Moon, it'll be on Mars."

No country has soft-landed at the lunar poles, which are harder to reach than the equator. The delay of Chang'e 7 opens the possibility that NASA gets there first: Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1 lander will carry two NASA probes to the South Pole, possibly as early as spring 2027. China aims to land its first astronauts on the Moon by 2030 or earlier.

Does the race actually matter?

Isaacman argued that it does, though China would only repeat what the United States did with Apollo in 1969. "That will call into question every other country around the world," he said. "Whose security guarantee should I trust? Should I trust the United States and NATO? Should I trust China if they're the emerging technical superpower here? Whose technology should I buy? Whose standards should I adhere to? Who am I listening to on AI?"

Isaacman said this should never have been a race, pointing to US space policy failures going back to the Reagan administration, and estimated NASA has spent $100 billion across administrations with nothing to show for it. China's first human spaceflight came in 2003, and it has since become a rival to the United States in space.

"If you come up short with who comes down the ladder first, the impact is felt around the world," Isaacman said.