NATO Weighs Redeploying Anti-Drone Defenses After Black Sea Shipping Attacks

Attacks Escalate in NATO Waters

Suspected drone attacks struck two more cargo ships in the Black Sea on October 13, sinking one vessel and forcing the evacuation of another within two dozen miles of the Bulgarian coast. The incidents bring the total to five ships attacked in the exclusive economic zones of NATO member countries since October 5.

The Ukrainian-operated coastal freighter Chelsea 3, registered under the Maltese flag, was reportedly hit by three aerial drones. All 15 crew members were safely evacuated by Bulgarian rescue operations. The Guinea-Bissau-flagged cargo ship Dignity sank after coming under attack, with five mariners rescued and 11 crew members still missing.

One week earlier, aerial and sea drones sank the Togo-flagged Alfa Watan and set the Palau-flagged Able ablaze about 80 miles off Bulgaria. The 18 crew members of the Able were rescued, two requiring hospitalization, while the 10-member crew of the Alfa Watan is presumed dead. The first incident in the series sank the Turkish-owned Royad Mammadov near Romania's coast on October 5, though all 11 crew members survived.

NATO Weighs Counter-Drone Response

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told the Russian ambassador in Sofia that it makes no sense for Ukraine to destroy its own ships in the Black Sea and that the strikes favor Russia's interests, according to the Associated Press. While there is no hard proof linking the attacks to Russia, the pattern has prompted Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey to request that NATO redeploy existing anti-drone countermeasures to the region, diplomats told Politico.

On October 14, Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov told parliament that the country would join NATO's Drone Edge initiative, under which member countries have committed a total of $40 billion to developing counter-drone capabilities over the next five years, according to The Sofia Globe. The three Black Sea nations are also cooperating on an initiative to safeguard freedom of navigation, which Radev plans to present to the European Union this week.

Shipping and Hybrid Warfare Concerns

The attacks are disrupting shipments carrying Ukraine's latest grain harvest to Europe, with some cargo rerouted overland or through the River Danube, Politico reported. Since the fall of 2023, Ukrainian ships have largely stuck to sea lanes running through Romanian, Bulgarian or Turkish territorial waters, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Black Sea shipping carries well over 90 percent of Ukraine's agricultural exports.

The incidents coincide with a broader wave of activity attributed to Russian hybrid or gray-zone tactics, including an attempted explosive drone attack on a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig Airport in Germany and a Russian drone boat loaded with explosives found floating near a Romanian offshore gas platform. Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have continued upgrading their navies and deepening maritime security cooperation since the start of the war, a trend the growing dangers at sea are likely to accelerate.

Sources: Ars Technica