Global PC Shipments Fall 20.1% in Q3 2026 as Memory Shortages Drive Prices Higher

Shipments Plunge Amid Memory Crunch

Global PC shipments fell 20.1% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026, a decline of 15.8 million units, according to research firm IDC Global. The drop is far steeper than the 3.8% year-over-year decrease the market experienced in the previous quarter and marks a 9.1% decline from the second quarter of this year.

IDC had warned since late last year that the PC market could shrink by up to 9%, with the budget sector expected to be hit hardest. Some experts now estimate the situation will not improve until 2029, and Tom's Hardware readers have said they do not plan to upgrade their systems within the next two years.

AI Data Centers Squeeze Consumer Supply

The shortage stems from the boom in AI data centers. Hyperscalers have poured massive amounts of money into the HBM memory needed to support AI GPUs, prompting memory manufacturers to pivot toward data center production and leaving less capacity for consumer memory. Micron, for example, discontinued the Crucial RAM and SSD brand in late 2025 to focus on data center production.

As PC makers compete for a shrinking supply of memory chips, prices have climbed by as much as 500%, with 128GB of DDR5 now costing as much as $3,399. Many manufacturers stocked up on inventory in the second quarter of 2026 to get ahead of projected price hikes, which directly contributed to the reduced shipments now being reported.

Top Vendors Hit Hardest

Lenovo, HP, and Dell suffered the steepest declines, shipping 11.6 million fewer units combined year-over-year. Lenovo's shipments fell 22.6%, HP's dropped 30.9%, and Dell's contracted 25%. Despite the losses, the three retained their lead with market shares of 23.8%, 16.5%, and 12.1% respectively.

Apple's shipments shrank 11.3% and Asus's fell 8.6%, while the rest of the market shipped 14% less year-over-year.

Recovery Timeline Disputed

IDC consumer devices research director Jitesh Ubrani attributed the Q3 slump to the strong first-half pull-in, saying vendors and channels loaded up on inventory early in the year to get ahead of price hikes, disrupting the usual seasonality in which Q3 is typically larger than Q2. He said channels are now worried about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand, which could translate into promotions and some short-term relief for consumers, though he does not expect pricing to return to levels seen a year ago.

Not everyone agrees with the grim outlook. Acer CEO Jason Chen argued that the fears are being hyped to protect memory chip makers' margins, and estimated that PC prices will decline by the latter half of 2027 as Chinese memory chip capacity comes online. He expects only high-end parts such as LPDDR5X-9600 and niche CPUs like the Nvidia N1 and N1X to remain in short supply.

Sources: Tomshardware