NYT investigation: giant pickups and SUVs are killing pedestrians

A trend that reversed around 2009

For decades, American roads grew steadily safer for pedestrians. That changed around 2009: since then the number of pedestrians killed each year in the United States has risen by about 75 percent, a New York Times investigation published on June 21 found. Researchers have struggled to explain the surge, and most other wealthy countries have not recorded a similar increase.

After analyzing federal and industry records, including vehicle-dimension data that had not been examined before, the newspaper concluded that the shift toward large pickups and SUVs is an important factor. It estimates that 200 to 400 pedestrians a year would not have died if vehicles had stayed roughly the same size over the past quarter-century — about 10 percent of the recent increase.

Taller hoods, larger blind zones

Bigger vehicles are deadlier for two reasons: their hoods are taller and their blind zones are larger. The hood of an average passenger vehicle is now about three feet high, so anyone shorter than 5-foot-6 — about half of American adults, and most children — would frequently be knocked to the pavement. “We see a lot of devastating collisions even at lower speeds because the pedestrian gets punted forward,” said Shawn Harrington of Forensic Rock, which ran crash tests for the Times. “Before the driver knows what has happened, the pedestrian's head is under the wheel.”

Using a 3D scanner, the paper compared four popular pickups — the Chevrolet Silverado, Ford F-150, GMC Sierra and Toyota Tacoma — with versions from the 1990s or early 2000s. The Silverado's blind zones have nearly doubled; the Sierra's and the Tacoma's grew by about 60 percent, and the F-150's by about 25 percent.

A statistical model and an ignored warning

The Times built a logistic regression on about 6,000 crashes from 2016 to 2024 involving a single vehicle and a single pedestrian. Hood height proved a statistically significant predictor of death: every extra inch raised the odds of a pedestrian fatality by 2.8 percent. Overall, the paper estimates that higher hoods caused about 3,000 deaths from 2016 to 2024.

Regulators had been warned. In November 2022, researchers at the Transportation Department's Volpe Center told department and NHTSA leaders that large vehicles with big blind zones were killing hundreds of pedestrians and cyclists every year. A senior NHTSA official disputed the data and pointed to new pedestrian-sensing technology; the meeting ended with no plan for action.

Profits and disputed fixes

Automakers say vehicle size is not the only cause. Ford's Mike Levine said blaming larger vehicles overlooks systemic issues such as road design, and General Motors pointed to a study finding that front pedestrian braking cut injuries by 35 percent. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has found that many large vehicles' automatic braking does not consistently prevent collisions. Pickups and SUVs also generate virtually all of the US auto industry's profits: the average full-size pickup sells for about $70,000, according to Cox Automotive.