ASML Sees Customer Order Interest Through 2030 on Strong AI Demand

Customers Eye Orders Through 2030

ASML said Wednesday that some of its customers are expressing an interest in placing orders for its critical semiconductor tools for 2029 and even 2030. The comments give investors a rare view into the longer-term demand outlook for the Dutch company's lithography machines. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers continue to increase their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts with ASML, driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments. He added that, in light of this demand visibility, some customers are already looking at orders beyond 2028.

Capacity Plans Raised

Fouquet said the supply currently planned for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand. ASML is investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase it had previously forecast. During the third quarter, Samsung and TSMC, the world's two largest chipmakers, committed to using ASML's High NA extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the company's next-generation tool that analysts see as key to its future growth. ASML is the only company in the world that produces extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are used by TSMC to make the most advanced semiconductors.

Third-Quarter Results and Guidance

ASML reported third-quarter net sales of 11.66 billion euros, slightly below the 11.72 billion euros expected by LSEG consensus estimates, but net profit came in at 4.96 billion euros versus the 4.1 billion euros expected, a clear beat. For the fourth quarter, the company guided to net sales of between 14.2 billion euros and 15.2 billion euros, with the upper end ahead of the LSEG consensus estimate of 14.2 billion euros. ASML narrowed its full-year revenue forecast to between 44 billion and 45 billion euros, raising the previous lower end of 43 billion euros. Shares of the company have rallied 56% this year.

China Business Remains a Focus

ASML said it expects China sales to account for 20% of its total business, sticking to a prior forecast. The company holds an effective monopoly on extreme ultraviolet machines and also dominates the manufacturing of less advanced immersion deep ultraviolet, or DUV, machines, which it is restricted from selling to China along with its EUV tools. A July report from The Information suggested an unnamed Chinese company had begun manufacturing an immersion DUV machine, citing people familiar with the matter, raising investor concerns about China ramping up its domestic semiconductor supply chain, though analysts have questioned China's ability to quickly scale its own DUV technology.

Sources: CNBC · Techmeme · Techmeme