FT Poll Sees AI Lifting Global Growth Without Mass Job Losses

Adoption is seen as the main growth channel

A Financial Times poll of 94 economists across Asia, the United States and Europe found that artificial intelligence is expected to raise growth in major economies beyond the United States and China over the coming decade without causing mass job losses. 54% of respondents expected significant economic and productivity gains in many or nearly all G20 countries over the next ten years.

The poll linked the gains to widespread and effective business adoption, comparing the spread of benefits with electricity and computers. Jumana Saleheen, chief economist at Vanguard, said economies that adopt and expand AI use would benefit beyond the places developing the technology, while users of ready made AI would also benefit with a time lag. Martin Beck of WPI Strategy said countries need not develop frontier AI, since gains can come through adoption, AI enabled imports, knowledge spillovers and cheaper goods and services. Tim Leunig of the London School of Economics said lower prices were the main way new technology transmitted benefits and would benefit everyone.

Risks concentrate in weaker economies

World Bank research in June found that gains from AI could surpass those driven by electrification. The bank put average annual global productivity growth at 1.4 percent in the 2000s, 1.1 percent in the 2010s and about 0.8 percent this decade without a major technological shift. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said in August that AI was becoming a growth engine as investment spread beyond the United States, and the IMF October World Economic Outlook said AI driven technology momentum was offsetting geopolitical pressures.

The poll identified less developed countries with weaker infrastructure and emerging economies dependent on outsourcing services replaceable by AI as at risk of falling behind. 32 respondents warned that weaker infrastructure put African countries at particular risk, naming Nigeria, Somalia and Ethiopia. Lea Dauphas of TAC Economics warned that faster productivity growth among early adopters could increase their capacity for further AI investment and compound the gap. The Philippines was cited for business process outsourcing, call centres and routine administrative services, while Philipp Lausberg of the European Policy Centre identified risks for Mexico and Indonesia.

Jobs change, but unemployment is not expected to jump

Economists said AI effects would vary substantially within countries as job markets changed. Many identified administrative, customer service, junior professional and other routine cognitive jobs as most vulnerable. Still, a majority said these changes should not cause a large or lasting rise in unemployment because new jobs would be created, and AI could help economies facing shrinking working age populations. Dame Diane Coyle of the University of Cambridge said AI would change the character of jobs but did not expect a collapse in employment.

Some economists warned that benefits could remain concentrated among owners of cutting edge companies in large economies such as the United States and China, shifting wealth from workers to shareholders. Economists at the Bank for International Settlements warned that a costly reversal of the AI related investment and stock market boom could significantly damage growth. Leading industry figures, including Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman, have called for slower innovation because of risks of unpredictable and destructive behaviour by AI agents. Poll participants frequently named the Nordic countries, the United Kingdom, France and Germany as potential winners, while warning that regulation could slow adoption in Europe.

Sources: KuCoin · FT · Techmeme