TrendForce sees slower laptop shipment decline as component costs pressure 2027 plans

Production plans shift back toward China

TrendForce projects that global notebook shipments will fall by a low single-digit percentage in 2027. The report says laptop manufacturers are expected to reconsider production strategies as rising costs make manufacturing outside China less attractive. The share of global notebook production outside China is projected to drop from 24% in 2025 to 21% in 2026 and potentially below 20% in 2027.

Component costs reach about 68% of mainstream BOM

TrendForce estimates that CPU, DRAM and SSD together account for approximately 68% of the bill of materials cost for mainstream notebooks with a $900 manufacturer’s suggested retail price in the third quarter of 2026. The firm says manufacturers are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications and profitability simultaneously in 2027. DRAM supply is likely to remain tight because of AI demand, while NAND flash availability could improve in the second half of 2027.

2027 demand hinges on price increases

The biggest concern is expected to shift from component availability to weakening consumer demand. TrendForce says improved CPU availability and component stocking in 2026 should help shipments, but that does not directly translate into healthy demand. Some customers upgraded earlier than planned in anticipation of higher prices, which could leave fewer buyers in 2027. Once inventories purchased at lower prices run out, manufacturers may face pressure to absorb higher costs or pass them on. Higher retail prices could further weaken demand, while absorbing costs would squeeze margins. Changes to specifications, including memory capacity, could control production costs but may make products less competitive. TrendForce says the key challenge is whether consumers can absorb higher laptop prices. If brands limit increases by adjusting specifications and absorbing some costs, shipments could decline by a small percentage in 2027. If more costs are passed on, the decline could reach the high-single-digit range.

Sources: Tomshardware