US bit barn boom sees energy needs grow 10x as fast as grid capacity

US datacenter power demand is growing about ten times faster than grid capacity, The Register reports. The boom in AI infrastructure is exposing long-term underinvestment in the grid networks needed to deliver power, and operators may soon have to find much of their own electricity elsewhere. Analysts and insurers warn of longer connection waits and rising costs as demand accelerates.

Demand outpaces the grid

Insurance broker Howden calculates that datacenters would need to source up to 58 percent of their power off the grid by 2030 just to keep their share of grid capacity from growing. Howden's analysis of US Energy Information Administration and S&P Global data found that since 2000, power fed to data campuses has risen 19 percent a year on average, while electricity grid capacity expanded 2 percent per annum over the same period. Datacenters' share of US grid capacity was about five percent in 2025, up from 0.1 percent in 2000, a 50-fold increase. That does not mean datacenters are in danger of consuming all of America's electricity, at least not in the immediate future. A chart can make the two trends look as if they are about to cross, but it uses different scales: 1,400 gigawatts on the left axis for grid capacity, versus 80 on the right for datacenters.

AI demand and forecasts

Gartner warned in June that energy consumed by AI datacenters is on track to grow 26 percent this year, and that grid supply may be unable to keep pace with demand by the end of this decade. Bain & Company issued a report two years ago warning that energy companies must invest faster in building out grid capacity, as energy draw by server farms is expected to more than double by 2030.

Delays, self-supply and risk

Howden estimates that keeping datacenters at five percent of grid capacity requires 110 gigawatts of behind-the-meter capacity by 2030, an expansion it considers unlikely. Instead, it expects greater reliance on the grid, slower development at power-constrained sites, and alternative supplies. For the largest, most power-constrained projects, grid delays of two to six years could mean $800 million to $2.4 billion in forgone revenue. Howden head of Natural Resources Stuart Adam says power availability is becoming one of the defining challenges of the datacenter boom, and that developers are increasingly looking beyond traditional grid connections to secure the electricity they need. Howden's business is insurance, so Adam also notes that on-site generation introduces new operational and financial exposures as operators take greater responsibility for their power infrastructure.

Sources: The Register